In the News - 12. Groundhog Day

It’s been a harsh few months of winter in the crypto market, with token prices falling hard and once-stable companies and organizations reducing workforces or even vanishing overnight. With Coinbase announcing another layoff of nearly 20% of employees, some might be feeling like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, forced to relive events over and over again. With that in mind, let’s turn to our friend the groundhog for an early crypto-winter prediction: are we nearly through to spring, or will winter’s cold snap continue on even longer? Back your assertion by creating a dashboard with on-chain data that supports your arguments in favor of either a continued downturn in the space or a soon-to-come rally.

What is Groundhog Day ?

Groundhog Day is a popular North American tradition observed in the United States and Canada on February 2. It derives from the Pennsylvania Dutch superstition that if a groundhog emerges from its burrow on this day and sees its shadow due to clear weather, it will retreat to its den, and winter will go on for six more weeks; if it does not see its shadow because of cloudiness, spring will arrive early.
While the tradition remains popular in the 21st century, studies have found no consistent association between a groundhog seeing its shadow and the subsequent arrival time of spring-like weather.
The weather lore was brought from German-speaking areas where the badger (German: Dachs) is the forecasting animal. This appears to be an enhanced version of the lore that clear weather on the Christian festival of Candlemas forebodes a prolonged winter.[1]

Methodology

We consider the following ecosystems for our analysis
- Terra
- Flow
- Ethereum
- Solana
- Near
First look at the Current price against the 7-day and 30-day moving average.
- This tells us how likely the price is to go up in the future.
We also look at various metrics have changed since Oct 2022, like Number of Active wallets,Number of New Wallets, Number of transactions, etc.

Conclusion

All the tokens as seen below are above their respective 7-Day and 30-Day Moving averages.
One thing to take note of is that Ethereum is the only one that is back to its Oct 2022 numbers, which is a very good sign.
This seems to suggest we are going to move out of the crypto winter with some chances of sunny skies ahead.
There has been a steady flow of new wallets across all the ecosystems, with Ethereum leading the way with a total of 8.8M new wallets since Oct 2022.
Other metrics are not so promising but the number are still holding which in itself is a good sign.

Token Prices

All the native tokens of each ecosystem have seen spike in price since Jan 14, 2022
All the tokens as seen below are above their respective 7-Day and 30-Day Moving averages.
One thing to take note of is that Ethereum is the only one that is back to its Oct 2022 numbers, which is a very good sign.
This seems to suggest we are going to move out of the crypto winter with some chances of sunny skies ahead.

Transactional Numbers

There has been a steady flow of new wallets across all the ecosystems, with Ethereum leading the way with a total of 8.8M new wallets since Oct 2022.
- Followed by Solana with 1.95M wallets and 1.53M for Near.
The active wallets haven’t seen any rising numbers except Ethereum and Flow, all other ecosystem still has the same numbers.
Number of transactions wise is the same as active wallets, we don’t see any specific increase in numbers.