Introduction

Polygon, an Ethereum layer 2 scaling protocol, has successfully completed a hard fork. The upgrade intends to address the network’s gas spike and chain reorganization issues (reorgs). As per Polygonscan data, the software was upgraded to Polygon PoS. In an Ethereum-compatible Proof-Of-Stake sidechain, on Jan 17 at 10:45 UTC (5:45 a.m. ET).

The upgrade was primarily required for frequent gas spikes, where the cost of conducting a transaction would exponentially increase during surges in network demand. And the fork intends to help reduce major fluctuations in gas pricing. And this hard fork-adjusted mechanism sets the gas fees with the purpose of keeping gas fees low when the network is active.

The second reason stated for the hard fork upgrade was to minimize the time it takes to complete a data block as part of an effort to prevent frequent reorgs. Which occur when a validator node receives information that temporarily generates a new version of the blockchain.

you can see more details of this Hard Fork here

Methodology

In this dashboard I separated my time frame to 2 different periods:

A. 1 month before the Fork (From 17/12/2022 until 16/01/2023 )

B. From the Fork date until 1 month after it (From 17/01/2023 until 17/02/2023 )

And these are the metrics I want to track and compare in each time frame to see the Fork’s effect on them:

1. Transactions and blocks status

2. Fees
3. TPS and success rate
4. Wallets activity
5. $matic price

So let’s start the work!

1st part: Transactions and blocks status

Findings

• Looks like the Fork was unable to boost the number of transactions overall. After the Fork, the average number of transactions per day decreased by 10k. But instead it seems unique users activity is increased, as After the Fork averagely a particular user is making 29 transactions, 11 more than the same metric before!
• The block creation status has improved after the Fork, the average amount of transactions between 2 blocks is increased, The maximum delay between 2 blocks significantly decreased (from 67 to 34 seconds) , However, the average time it takes to create the next block after the Fork is 0.09 seconds longer than it used to.

2nd part: Fees

Findings

• One of the goals of the Hard Fork was to decrease gas spikes, but based on the fees charts we don't see any reduction in gas prices (in Gwei) or fees (in $usd). The charts show a big spike in January, before the Fork. However, we can still see some spikes on the 2nd and 9th February, both of which are larger than the 14th's!
• Also, users are currently paying much more transaction fees compared to before. However, I believe this is understandable given the recent hype surrounding all EVM chains, particularly the L2 chains, because of the recent $OP airdrop and green days of the crypto!
• In this case (fees), the impact of the Hard Fork is not yet clear yet.

3rd part: TPS and success rate

Findings

• Comparing the daily TPS after & before the Fork, we can say overall number of spikes in the daily TPS chart is a little bit reduced but not completely steady or it's hard to say it's have an increasing/decreasing trend, also the average amount of TPS is almost the same in both periods, so the Fork had no particular impact on TPS.
• Compared to before, the success rate was better after the upgrade, until 14th February, when a negative spike (from 94% to 89%) halted the trend. Like what we saw in TPS, the average success rate of transactions remained the same after the Fork.

Findings

• According to wallet stats, The Fork did not have a significant impact on wallets! As we see the number of active wallets per day (means wallets that make transactions- not the ones who just receive transactions or idle) is decreased after the Fork, and the overall time between 2 transactions of 1 user (retention) is also increased as the number of wallets with less than 1 day retention is lowered after the Fork.
• Also the new wallet creation rate is significantly decreased, as after the Fork the average number of new wallets created per day had decreased by 11k!

4th part: Wallets activity

5th part: $matic price

Findings

• The news that the Fork was made and also the bullish moves made by $btc helped $matic to spend a good couple of days following the Fork! The price of $matic has grown more than 50% from its price on the last day before the upgrade until 1 month after it! And comparing a month before the Fork, $matic experienced +80% growth!

Conclusion

• There are 4 main improves can seen after the Hard fork:

  1. The maximum delay between 2 blocks significantly decreased (from 67 to 34 seconds).
  2. The average number of transactions between 2 blocks is more than before.
  3. A particular user is making 29 transactions on average, 11 more than the same metric before the Fork
  4. the $matic price, which is more notable than the other 3 cases, as it has grown more than 50% from its price on the last day before the upgrade until 1 month after it! And comparing a month before the Fork, $matic experienced +80% growth!

  However it was expected to see some more improvements in especially fees & gas prices spikes as this case was one of the main goals of this Fork, but the other metrics have not yet shown any significant improvement yet.

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Sources