Methodology

Following the bounty's hints I created two CTE tables, each querying the total SOL swapped from and to aggregated by day with the following conditions:

• swap_from_mint = 'So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112'

• swap_to_mint = 'So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112'

Using an INNER JOIN, I add both series to a table and obtain the data shown in results section.

Additional conditions were:

• succeeded = 'TRUE'
• swap_program = 'jupiter aggregator v2', although all transactions on the solana.swaps table seem to be from Jupiter Aggregator

An additional analysis was done after the bounty's deadline to explore what pairs were the most common to try to find other patterns to explain the spikes on swapped volume. This included a new parameter PairAway which was created from a CASE on swapped_to_mint. The same analysis could also be done on swapped_from_mint.

Three different spikes are noteworthy:

• January 7th with swapped away 198k SOL and swapped to 164k SOL
• January 24th with swapped away 332k SOL and swapped to 192k SOL
• February 2nd with swapped away 214k SOL and swapped to 164k SOL

Results

Conclusions

Jupiter Aggregator has seen a trajectory in the past months were announcements of DEX/platform integrations and other milestones like 1 Billion in transaction volume have become the business as usual. In this positive trend, I cannot find an concrete explanation for the spikes mentioned in the results section except for the one on January 24th, date on which SOL price was on an all-time low for the last 5 months approximately. The other two spikes could well be derived from local price action, i.e. people wanting to capitalize on local bottom relative to the swapped currencies.

The additional analysis of the swap pairs shows a big increase on SOL-SOL pair for both spikes on Jan 24th and Feb 2nd, hinting at the possibility that arbitrage opportunities on puntual days could explain the increase in volume.

Although it is hard to get all details from this chart due to the big number of swap pairs, the most common pairs are easily identified:

• SOL-USDC (stablecoin)

• SOL-SOL

• SOL-mSOL (marinated SOL)

• SOL-USDT (stablecoin)

• SOL-stSOL

These are either stablecoins or synthetic SOL tokens.

Another visualization that shows the dominance of the SOL-USDC pair, which accounts for 42% of the swapped to volume.