The Question
Analyze Optimism during the month of July as markets were get turbulent, showing whatever metrics you care to unearth.
You can choose any topic you’d like: How did the network perform? What about market performance? Were there significant inflows or outflows on bridges? Were there any notable patterns in user behavior? \n
Approach
In this project, it has been tried to investigate and analyze the Optimism network from various aspects in recent months, especially in the month of July and during the bear market. The reviewed metrics are:
- daily number of transactions and distinct users
- cumulative total transactions by sectors
- Daily total transactions by sectors
- share of daily total transactions by sectors
- total and cumulative daily distinct users by sectors
- total Daily Fees (in ETH) and daily share of ETH value per sector
- daily transaction count by type and user count by type of transaction (first or other transactions)
- Daily Transactions status (failed or succeeded)
- Failed transactions - sectors' daily share
- cumulative transaction failure in sectors and daily failure rate by sectors
- TPS
- layer2 platforms daily tot cumulative transactions and daily share of tot layer2 transactions
- Number of stake and unstake actions and wallets
- Number of Borrow and Repay actions and wallets
- Number of swap actions and wallets
- Number of dlegation actions and wallets and type of delegation
According to the graph presented, the number of Optimism network transactions as well as the number of users has had a significant drop in July, especially until the end of the first half of it.
To take a deeper look at the issue, we pay attention to the next chart, that is, cumulative total transactions by sectors. The diagram shows that it is planted from the Layer2 growth gradient and added to the Dex growth gradient. The rest have continued a relatively constant trend.
The next graph shows a significant decrease in the use of Layer in July compared to the end of the previous month.
Its share of the total number of transactions has increased from more than 50% at the end of the previous month to about 30% in July.
Regarding the total number of unique users, the conditions are exactly the same as the number of transactions, and for Layer 2, we see a decrease in this metric in both daily and cumulative charts.
Considering that the number of transactions is one of the important factors determining Fee, this metric also faced a significant decrease in the first half of July.
All the investigated cases have experienced a positive trend since the second half of July. It seems that the fear caused by the bear market has been slightly removed since the second half of July and users have returned to the network with a positive view.
It seems that, bear market has had its effect on number of ==first transactions== and also the users who made the first transactions,
so, the share of first tranactions of the total, from over 20% in late June, reached about 4 to 5% in July.
The trend of ==failed transactions== is almost the reverse of the other cases, that is, since the beginning of July, with the decrease of transactions, the share of failed transactions has also decreased.
Looking at the charts, the share of dex in failed transactions has been more than others.
The TPS factor or the number of transactions per second, like most of the reviewed cases, decreased in early July and started to grow again from mid-July. In general, the TPS of successful transactions was more than unsuccessful, and this is normal because the number of successful transactions was more.
Looking at the cumulative number of Layer2 transactions, the most important point to mention, is the sudden trend change
of ==eth l2 ammwrapper== since late June and early July.
staking
In terms of staking, the situation in July did not change much compared to the previous month and was steady. In early August, we see a sudden increase in this case.
unstaking
From the 8th to the 18th of July, the rand decreased and then rose again.
Borrow
The peak of the graph was on July 6th and then it has decreased. In mid-July, the rising wave has started again.
Repay
If we do not consider the date of June 28, which was the highest amount and several times of other days, the trend has been steady.
Swap
As in most cases reviewed, the trend decreased at the beginning of July and started to grow again from mid-July.
Delegation
Conclusion
In most of the cases reviewed, we saw a decline from early to mid-July, and since around July 17th, most metrics have started to grow again. In bear market conditions, it is natural and necessary for users to be cautious. According to the market conditions, and in order to reduce the risk, the users have reduced their activities for some time and watched the market, and with the relative improvement of the market conditions and the feeling of the risk reduction, they have started the activity again, and this is the most important part of the story , the resumption of activity, which fortunately we witnessed on Optimism network.
==What is a bear market?== 1
A bear market is defined by a prolonged drop in investment prices — generally, a bear market happens when a broad market index falls by 20% or more from its most recent high. There can be bear markets for a market as a whole, such as in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as well as for individual stocks.
While 20% is the threshold, bear markets often plummet much deeper than that over a sustained period, not all at once. Although the market has a few occasional “relief rallies,” the general trend is downward. Eventually, investors begin to find stocks attractively priced and start buying, officially ending the bear market.
Bear markets are characterized by investors’ pessimism and low confidence. During a bear market, investors often seem to ignore any good news and continue selling quickly, pushing prices even lower.
While investors might be bearish on an individual stock, that sentiment may not affect the market as a whole. But when the market turns bearish, almost all stocks within it begin to decline, even if individually they’re reporting good news and growing earnings.