DOT DOT, Who's There?

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    Overview

    Polkadot, the blockchain of blockchains, is a platform connects multiple chains. DOT is the native token of Polkadot which is used for governance, staking and bonding.

    On July 2022, Osmosis, the Cosmos-based interchain automatic market maker (AMM), announces that its integration with Axelar and Moonbeam it enables users to swap between Cosmos, Polkadot, and Ethereum-based tokens by one-click. The first token to move between ecosystems is DOT, which is now available on Osmosis.

    This dashboard investigates the popularity of DOT on Osmosis. It specifically attempts to distinguish between true DOT users and arbitraguers.

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    Method and Data


    The aim is dashboard is to investigates whether the trading activity of DOT on Osmosis is done by real user or by just arbitrageurs. To do this first we should identify arbitrageurs.

    There are two main actions on Pool 773; Providing Liquidity and swapping. First, we will present LP activities and attempt to find wallets who frequently do LP actions. Suspected wallets are those who exit liquidity frequently. Then, We will look into swapping activities. The suspected wallets are those who swap DOT very frequently. We filter wallets with more than one swap per day as arbitrageurs.

    When we identify arbis we will see what share of the activities belong to these wallets.


    Descriptives


    The data shows that so far 1257 users have been involved in Liquidity pools (joining pools). These users provided 48700 DOT equal to 409K USD.

    Graphs below show the difference between joining and exiting the pool 773.

    We can see that users more frequently join the pool, while the average action size is lower in joining.

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    Taking into account change over time, we can see that number of LP actions is decreasing. Also number of users being involved in Pool number 773 has drastically declined since July.

    Graph below shows trading DOT on Osmosis.

    The graph shows that the number of swaps has largely decreased after the FTX collapse, when we can see a spike in the number of swaps.

    We can see 10 users has been performed more than 50% of total swaps.

    These wallets can be defined as arbis.

    Scatter plot below shows that there few wallet that do action of joining/exiting.

    Top LP actions are listed below.

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    Explanatory Analysis


    Graphs below shows the share of swaps by arbis compared to ordinary users.

    We can see that although the number of arbis is the tiny share of all ordinary users, the share of arbis in swap activities is remarkable. Particularly when we take into account the volume of swaps, we can see that arbis make almost all of swapping activities.

    Looking into LP activities, the data shows that arbis do not contribute significantly.

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    Conclusion


    In this dashboard we first identified suspected wallets. Then calculated the share of the suspected wallets in Liquidity Pool activities and swapping activities.

    The data shows that while lp actors are mostly ordinary users, swapping is done mainly by arbis.

    Most of the days more than 75% of DOT swaps performed by arbis.