Context

On June 15, the USDT stablecoin deviated slightly from its USD peg due to an imbalance in Curve's 3pool. USDT's price fell by 0.3% to approximately 0.997 as its weightage in the curve 3pool increased to over 70% from the usual 33.1%. An increase in the weightage of a specific stablecoin in the pool indicates significant selling pressure for that asset.

During volatile times, people often miss opportunities or make unwise decisions. @Flowslikeosmo commented on the FUD surrounding $USDT, saying, "People have a tendency to run when they should stand, and stand when they should run." I wanted to test this hypothesis using a small sample of users who traded USDT on Osmosis on June 15th, when USDT lost its peg at 2.00 and then returned to 2.00 at 18:00.

Analysis

The data reveals that the volume of sold USDT surpasses the volume of purchased USDT. Additionally, there is a significant disparity between the number of sellers and sells compared to buyers and purchases. This suggests that during the hours when USDT was depegged, more individuals sold their USDT in smaller quantities, while fewer people made larger purchases. Consequently, there was a higher overall selling activity for USDT compared to purchasing activity. However, it is worth noting that the difference in volume does not directly correspond to the difference in the number of sellers and buyers.

Analyzing the different categories, it becomes evident that arbitrageurs have a considerably higher average OSMO balance compared to both buyers and sellers. Buyers, in turn, have a higher average balance compared to sellers. Additionally, arbitrageurs pay a significantly higher average transaction fee compared to the other groups. However, it is worth noting that arbitrageurs tend to be younger than the other groups.

This implies that those who took advantage of the USDT depeg situation had higher balances, particularly among the sellers. Furthermore, both arbitrageurs and buyers exhibit more experience in their trading activities, as evidenced by the substantially higher transaction fees paid by these groups.