Try Quests to earn cryptoOvertime Markets - Profitable Traders
Description of work
In this work, we want to analyze traders' profits in Overtime in the last two weeks.
This work includes the following sections:
- Analyzing Overtime general statistics in the last two weeks
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1 - 1 Games that have been bet on in the last two weeks
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2 - 1 Number of traders and the amount that they spent on betting in the last two weeks
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- Analyzing traders’ profits in the last two weeks
- 1 - 2 Profits and losses of traders in the last two weeks
- 2 - 2 Top 5 profitable traders
- Conclusion
- In this work, "trader" refers to those who bet in Overtime, and "profit" refers to the money that they won in the bets.
- All the results in this work are related to the period from 2022-08-11 to 2022-08-24 (14 days).
First, let's introduce Thales and Overtime!
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What is Thales?
Thales is an Ethereum protocol that allows the creation of peer-to-peer parimutuel markets that anyone can join. This building block is the foundation of novel on-chain initiatives, from a platform for AMM-based positional markets to immersive gamified experiences and much more.
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How does it work?
The set of smart contracts composing Thales leverages uncensorable sUSD as collateral, an immutable source of truth for market settlement from Chainlink data feeds, and all the advantages (speed, costs, and security) of a rollup-centric network like Optimism.
source: thalesmarket.io
Thales website: thalesmarket.io
Thales docs: docs.thalesmarket.io
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Whats is Overtime?
Overtime is a positional market for popular sporting events that operates without relying on a centralized entity like most sports markets. Now that Thales contracts have been used as inspiration for the new Sports AMM, as well as reliable data feeds from the industry best oracle Chainlink, Overtime promises the most fun you'll have with DeFi.
The Sports AMM is one of the most anticipated products built on Thales, as it allows users to purchase positions for their favorite sports teams through the highs and lows of an entire season. With sports such as soccer, football, and basketball on offer, and more on the way such as UFC, Formula 1, Moto GP, you can finally support your favorite team or athlete entirely on the blockchain!
source: docs.overtimemarkets.xyz
**Overtime website: **
Overtime docs: docs.overtimemarkets.xyz
Methodology
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1 - When a person bets on a game in Overtime, an amount in stablecoin (in USDC or USDT or DAI or sUSD - according to Overtime docs) is transferred from its wallet to Overtime smart contract. By finding the transactions that transfer stablecoins to the mentioned smart contract, we can obtain the trader address, the number of bets, their amounts, and the smart contracts related to the games that have been bet on from
[optimism.core.fact_event_logs]table.\
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2 - We can obtain information about the details of the games, such as the name of the games and sport and the league related to each game, from the Onchain data, But due to the difficulty of this method and the fact that canceled games and related transactions cannot be identified through this method, we choose another way.
We received the information related to the details of the games through Overtime Graphql API in the form of JSON, and then we converted this information into SQL commands using Python and used it in Velocity. Details of converting JSON to SQL commands are available on Github.
Details about the games can be obtained using the following command:query MyQuery { sportMarkets(where: {timestamp_gte: "1660176000",timestamp_lte:"1661385599", isCanceled:false}, first:1000, orderBy: timestamp ){ address homeTeam awayTeam tags numberOfParticipants isResolved timestamp}}\
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3 - When a game ends, those who have won the bet will receive their reward through sUSD stablecoin from the smart contract related to each game.
By finding transactions in which smart contracts related to games transfers sUSD to other addresses ( with
Exercise Optionsmethod), we can get the amount that traders received from various games.Also, by comparing the received amounts from games smart contracts and the amount that traders have spent for betting (which is explained in section 1 how to calculate), traders' profit and loss can be obtained.
If a game is canceled, all the amounts bet on it will be returned to the traders by the smart contract related to the game.
We ignore transactions related to betting on these games because, in section 2, we only get details of finished games (by setting isCanceled:false).
✅ Observations
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In the last two weeks, bets have been placed on 354 matches.
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The largest share of different sports from this number of games is related to football (43.8% - 155 matches), baseball (41.2% - 146 matches), American football (8.47% - 30 matches), and MMA (6.5% - 23matches), respectively.
✅ Observations
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In the last two weeks, 2022 bets were placed by 464 traders.
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In the last two weeks, $247.7K has been spent on betting.
- Of this amount, $120.55K(48.7%) has been spent on baseball , $79.71K (32.2%) for football, $30.32K (12.2%) for MMA and $17.08K(6.9%) for American footbal.
✅ Observations
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Traders have made a profit of $90.3K in the last two weeks.
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58.8% of the traders (273 traders) have been profitable in the last two weeks, and the rest (41.2%) have lost.
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- 39.9% of traders have lost less than $100 in the last two weeks.
- 24.8% of traders made less than $100 profit in the last two weeks.
- 7.54% of traders have lost more than $600 in the last two weeks.
- 7.54% of traders have made more than $600 profit in the last two weeks.
✅ Observations
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The top 5 profitable traders in the last two weeks are respectively related to the following addresses:
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0xebbefa85adb58ae1c44a6db83d3b52315d4aea11 - $9.24K profit - Trader earned this amount from betting on only 1 baseball match
- Boston Red Sox VS New York Yankees - MLB
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0xb4079f1e529309eff78f634cb1a82397547e9d30 - $9.13K profit - Trader earned this amount from betting on 3 MMA matches and 1 baseball match
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Denise Gomes VS Rayanne Amanda - MMA - $958.62 profit
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Eduardo Neves VS Mick Parkin - MMA - $2604.28 profit
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Jesus Santos Aguilar VS Erisson Ferreira da Silva - MMA - $4786.74 profit
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Detroit Tigers VS San Francisco Giants - MLB - Baseball - $786.78 profit
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0xbf3cbc3efdfa389bcacdbadc79d6349b81b2593e - $8.25K profit - Trader earned this amount from betting on only 1 MMA match
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Leon Edwards VS Kamaru Usman - MMA
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0x4cc423d28183e05fbc5c70d1ae3424de4c4aacff - $6.621K profit - Trader earned this amount from betting on 2 baseball matches
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Cincinnati Reds VS Chicago Cubs - MLB - Baseball - $6132.66 profit
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Los Angeles Angels VS Minnesota Twins - MLB - Baseball - $489.15 profit
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0x259e094902fd1f5863ede0b3000b97ba93c42e83 - $5.8K profit - Earned this amount from betting on only 1 baseball match
- Philadelphia Phillies VS Miami Marlins - MLB - Baseball
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The top 5 profitable traders have made a total of $31.9K profit in the last two weeks.
3 - Conclusion
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In the last two weeks, bets have been placed on 354 matches, and 2022 bets were placed by 464 traders.
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In the last two weeks, $247.7K has been spent on betting.
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Traders have made a profit of $90.3K in the last two weeks.
- The top 5 profitable traders have made a total of $31.9K profit in the last two weeks.
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58.8% of the traders (273 traders) have been profitable in the last two weeks, and the rest (41.2%) have lost.
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The top 5 profitable traders in the last two weeks are respectively related to the following addresses:
- 0xebbefa85adb58ae1c44a6db83d3b52315d4aea11 - $9.24K profit - Trader earned this amount from betting on only 1 baseball match
- 0xb4079f1e529309eff78f634cb1a82397547e9d30 - $9.13K profit - Trader earned $8349.66K this by betting on 3 MMA matches and $489.15 from betting on 1 baseball match
- 0xbf3cbc3efdfa389bcacdbadc79d6349b81b2593e - $8.25K profit - Trader earned this amount from betting on only 1 MMA match
- 0x4cc423d28183e05fbc5c70d1ae3424de4c4aacff - $6.621K profit - Trader earned this amount from betting on 2 baseball matches
- 0x259e094902fd1f5863ede0b3000b97ba93c42e83 - $5.8K profit - Earned this amount from betting on only 1 baseball match
۰About 70% of the profits earned by the top 5 profitable traders came from betting on baseball matches, and the remaining 30% came from betting on MMA matches.