UNI Price Correlations

    April 1, 2022

    The price of UNI dropped by 31% so far this year. While Uniswap remains the dominant AMM on Ethereum, its token has lost a lot of value since its $43 peak in May 2021.

    However, all crypto assets have lost value recently. It might be worthwhile to compare UNI against the price of other crypto assets, paying closer attention to other DEX tokens.

    The prices of various DEX tokens are shown in the chart above:

    • Uniswap (UNI),
    • Sushiswap (SUSHI),
    • Curve (CRV),
    • Serum (SRM), a dex on Solana, and
    • DYDX

    Curve's CRV (shown in red) seems to have more robust downside protection than the other DEX tokens. This must be thanks to Curve's innovative token incentives.

    UNI is strongly correlated with SUSHI. This is to be expected as both protocols are nearly identical.

    The price movements of UNI is also highly correlated with the prices of Solana's SRM and of DYDX, two other decentralized exchanges.

    The price of UNI appears to move in sync with the prices of other DEX tokens.

    Takeaways

    • The price of UNI moves in sync with the prices of other DEX tokens.

    • The price of UNI is strongly correlated with the prices of SUSHI, DYDX and Serum's SRM.

    • In this difficult market, Curve's CRV has managed to hold its price better than other DEX tokens.

    • UNI is more strongly correlated with Bitcoin than with ETH.

    Overall, the prices of DEX tokens like UNI, SUSHI, SRM, CRV and DYDX are strongly correlated with each other.


    It is widely believed that as the prices of ETH and Bitcoin go down, the price of every other token goes down with them. The data above seems to validate this belief. However, DEX token prices track the price of Bitcoin more closely than they track the price of ETH.

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    UNI Price vs. Eth Price

    Does the price of UNI move in sync with the price of ETH?

    The prices of ETH and UNI appear to be moderately correlated. Ever since May 2021, it has been more profitable to hold ETH instead of UNI.

    UNI Price vs Other DEX Tokens.

    Do the prices of all DEX tokens move in sync?

    > Curve's unique incentives are explained by Gerrit Hall in the episode of Bankless entitled The Curve Wars.

    Correlations Between Tokens

    The CORR function of SQL computes the correlation between two variables. It allows us to precisely measure the correlation between the prices of the tokens.

    Surprisingly, UNI is more strongly correlated with Bitcoin (r = 0.81) than with ETH (r = 0.59).

    Log Price Chart

    Price trends are easier to visualize using a logarithmic chart.

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    Annex - Methodology

    All token prices are queried from Flipside's ethereum.token_prices_hourly. For UNI, it is important to set price > 1 because the table has some erroneous pricing data on UNI.

    Prices are measured hourly. The period of observation is from September 17, 2020 to March 31, 2022.

    SRM and Bitcoin are not Ethereum native assets, but their wrapped versions are found in ethereum.token_prices_hourly.