Anchor liquidations risks

    Explore the worst-case scenarios for liquidation on Anchor. When have the most liquidations occurred, how much, and how many users were impacted? Under what scenarios might significant liquidations occur again?

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    Global analysis about the liquidations and when they occurred as well as how much and how many users were involved

    First of all, we will take a look at the whole data. In this case, we will analyze the total number of liquidations, the amount liquidated and the total users involved by day. The table below shows the obtained results.

    As we can see, the top days in the number of liquidations are around the same week, between May 19th and May 23rd. It is a signal that we can study and obtain some significant relationships about why it happens.

    Viewing the donut that represents the distribution of total liquidations by date that occurred, we can corroborate what we see in the previous table, almost 70% of the total liquidations occurred in the same week.

    Finally, if we take a look at the number of liquidations, the total amount liquidated and the users affected over time, we can see a relationship between them. Again, the most important numbers are situated in the same week.

    Top 10 liquidation analysis

    Now, we will analyze in more detail when the most liquidations occurred, what amount was liquidated and how many users were affected. The table below shows the results obtained.

    Among the top 10 days with liquidations, almost 86% of the total liquidations occurred in that May week. Now, we can see how April 18th was an important day as well when more than 6.5% of the liquidations occured.

    This chart shows when these huge amounts of liquidations in a single day occurred, again viewing the large line being in May 2021.

    Finally, this chart shows the number of amount liquidated and the total users affected. Here we can see how there is no relationship between these metrics. So, sometimes seems that the correlation is negative and when a huge amount is liquidated, fewer users are impacted, and vice-versa.

    Understanding why large liquidations occur and what scenarios might significant liquidations occur again

    Now that we know when large liquidations occur, we will take a look at the ANC price in order to see if may impact that. I have done this analysis due to in the major of cases, the liquidations are done because of dumping on the token price.

    These three charts above, show the total liquidated amount, the number of liquidations, and the total users affected respectively and compared with ANC token price over time. As seen, in the three cases, the token price seems that affect it, because when the ANC price decreases, the amount of three metrics increases. As well, when the drop is higher, the amounts are higher as well.

    Finally, this last chart shows the number of liquidations and the ANC price change over time. I think it is a good chart because of we can interpret clearly that when the daily change is negative, some liquidation occurs, and as more high this negative change, more liquidations occurs.

    Conclusion

    In this thread, we have seen that the most liquidations occurred in the week between 19th May and 23rd May, when the major downtrend of ANC token occurred. In these situations, more than 1000 liquidations occurred, and more than 15 users were affected each time. As well, the minimum global amount liquidated on a day was 1,7M USD, and the maximum 31,7M USD. From that, we can extract that the worst-case scenario for liquidation of Anchor occurs when the market price is bear and the trend turns negative.

    We can see how in the top days of liquidations, more than 1000 liquidations occurred, and more than 15 users were affected each time. As well, the minimum global amount liquidated on a day was 1,7M USD approx, and the maximum 31,7M USD.