Overview

The price of Ethereum has sank in recent days due to several bad news for crypto and the continuation of a bad trend in the entire cryptomarket. However, it seems that there is some reason why Ethereum has dropped faster over the recent days.

The main impact news has been that some FTX account hacker drained a lot of ETH and are now swapping the tokens. According to Arkham, Crypto Intelligence, the FTX account drainer swapped 15K Ethereum to renBTC. It bridged out ETH to native BTC.

However, the tracking firm has identified the pattern of the drainer. It mentioned that the hacker is operating between 08:00 and 10:00 UTC. It is generating a new account for each operation. Meanwhile, the attacker is limited by the liquidity of renBTC. This is why it cannot bridge huge funds at once.

Data depicts that, 15K Ethereum (approx worth $16.78 million was swapped for 1023.64 Bitcoin (approx $16.47 million). The transaction resulted in a slippage of $312K. It added that traders are taking an advantage of this swapping by arbitraging the difference created between renBTC and WBTC.

Methodology

For this reason, we are gonna explore now how has been the price evolution of Ethereum and we will compare it against other cryptocurrencies. As well, we will try to find some pattern that could be related to the movement of the price.

To do that, I have compared several metrics between ETH and its competitors like BTC and MATIC, BNB. The metrics studied have been:

• Prices trends over the past month
• Daily changes over the past month
• Relationship between ETH changes and cryptomarket changes
• Some causes for ETH’s struggle.
• Study of any potential causes or any indicators that could help us predict whether/when it could recover?

Ethereum price vs others

As seen, from the beginning of the data records, a total of 110 times the average market down more than 1%. Take into account that we have considered cryptomarket as average metrics of BTC, ETH, BNB, and MATIC tokens because in my opinion they are representative tokens. During these bad days when market down, the average changed in prices were -3.9%. However, in the case of ETH price, the average percentage change during those days were -4.03. In fact, if we take into account how many times ETH price decreased when cryptomarket falls more than 1% were 108. Then, in only 2 times when the cryptomarket goes down more than 1%, ETH price stayed safe.

Finally, I have computed how many times ETH prices outperformed the cryptomarket when it went down. From the 110 times, 44 days ETH price outperformed cryptomarket, being 40% of times when ETH price had a better performance than the whole cryptomarket.

To conclude this first approach, I have compared the evolution of ETH price against the whole cryptomarket in order to see if it follows similar trends or at some points the ETH price developed different sideways. In the first image, we can see the ETH price changes over the past month in comparison to the other top crypto tokens such as BTC, BNB and MATIC. As it can be seen, when the BTC goes up or down, the other altcoins do the same but in a more pronounced manner. It seems that ETH is not as volatile as the other tokens, but the trend is the same as the rest.

In fact, if we take a look at the second image, we can see how there is a strong positive correlation between the ETH price and the average cryptomarket price in terms of daily changes. It can be clearly seen that when the percentage is negative, the aerage market change is negative as well. On the other hand, when the ETH price change is positive the avreage whole cryptomarket goes up as well. In both cases, when the percentage is higher, the same occurs for the whole cryptomarket.

Indicator 1: swapping activity

The first possible indicator selected is the swaps. When the price of an asset change, it is the major of the times related to its netflow on swaps. For this reason, I have selected this first indicator.

If we take a look at the first chart, it can be seen how the netflow of swaps for ETH has been so negative over the past days and weeks, reaching the highest numbers between 7 and 9th of November, when the FTX and Alameda Research news were announced. If we take this trend and compare it against the ETH price, we can see how they are clearly correlated due to follows the same trend.

Indicator 2: transfer’s activity

The second possible indicator selected is the transfers. When the price of an asset change, it is commonly realted to transfers activity. For this reason, I have selected this first indicator.

If we take a look at the first chart, it can be seen how the volume of ETH in transfers has fluctuates a lot over the past days and weeks, reaching the highest numbers between 7 and 9th of November, when the FTX and Alameda Research news were announced. If we take this trend and compare it against the ETH price, we can see how they are negatively correlated due to follows contrary trends.

Looking at the relationship between volume transferred and price movements, we can see a moderate/strong negative correlation, saying as that when the volume transferred is higher, the ETH price seems to go down.

Key insights

• The difference between BTC price performance and ETH price performance over the past year. It can be seen how the ETH and BTC prices followed similar trends. However, it seems that when the BTC prices drops heavly, the drop of the ETH price tend to be higher.
• A total of 110 times the average market down more than 1%. Take into account that we have considered cryptomarket as average metrics of BTC, ETH, BNB, and MATIC tokens because in my opinion they are representative tokens.
• During these bad days when market down, the average changed in prices were -3.9%. However, in the case of ETH price, the average percentage change during those days were -4.03. In fact, if we take into account how many times ETH price decreased when cryptomarket falls more than 1% were 108. Then, in only 2 times when the cryptomarket goes down more than 1%, ETH price stayed safe.
• From the 110 times, 44 days ETH price outperformed cryptomarket, being 40% of times when ETH price had a better performance than the whole cryptomarket.
• ETH price changes over the past month in comparison to the other top crypto tokens such as BTC, BNB and MATIC. As it can be seen, when the BTC goes up or down, the other altcoins do the same but in a more pronounced manner. It seems that ETH is not as volatile as the other tokens, but the trend is the same as the rest.
• There is a strong positive correlation between the ETH price and the average cryptomarket price in terms of daily changes. It can be clearly seen that when the percentage is negative, the aerage market change is negative as well.
• The netflow of swaps for ETH has been so negative over the past days and weeks, reaching the highest numbers between 7 and 9th of November, when the FTX and Alameda Research news were announced. If we take this trend and compare it against the ETH price, we can see how they are clearly correlated due to follows the same trend.
• The volume of ETH in transfers has fluctuates a lot over the past days and weeks, reaching the highest numbers between 7 and 9th of November, when the FTX and Alameda Research news were announced. If we take this trend and compare it against the ETH price, we can see how they are negatively correlated due to follows contrary trends.

As a result, here we can see the differnce between BTC price performance and ETH price performance over the past year. It can be seen how the ETH and BTC prices followed similar trends. However, it seems that when the BTC prices drops heavly, the drop of the ETH price tend to be higher.

The second and third chart represents the daily change in price of ETH price against BTC price. When BTC decreases the ETH prices decreased in a higher % and on the other way around.