Art Blocks Predictive Analytics

    In my opinion, you cannot do technical analysis Art Blocks collections. Fundamental analysis is a bit viable but this is not like other NFT projects that has provide products or services in their roadmap like the BAYC, Pudgy Penguins etc. Most tokens on Art Blocks are just arts and it is very hard to predict the price going forward. However, it does not mean that it is impossible to speculate the price, it just need different approach. So, in this dashboard, I'll breakdown some method to identify which collection will worth more than others in the coming months or years.

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    First, we will take a look at Fidenza which now one of the most valuable collection in the entire Art Block and NFT in general and arguably brings Art Block to mainstream. Fidenza was available for mint on June 11th.

    We can see the sudden spike in sales volume on 31st July. Let's see the detailed sales on this day. Now, we can identify that whale started to move; the top buyer on 31st July is wallet address 0xff4c60814adc5ee4cdf9a57e0944b1e4678ff09c who casually drops almost 1.7M on one day on 10 Fidenzas.

    However, I believe that the most important thing in NFT space and cryptocurrency in general are the whale movement. That is exactly why Big Data and analytics are important and we see how important organization like Nansen and Icy Tools has become in NFT space. Whale are those wallet owner with huge capital; including institutions, venture capital or maybe crypto influencer. The market won't move as much unless whale involved. So, now let's see who are the top wallet and their movement before August and see if their transactions impact the market.

    And graph below illustrates the sales volume of Fidenza collection in August. In mid August, we can see that the volumes suddenly spikes and daily volume passed 10M USD on 20th and 23rd August. Honestly, I would expect the top 5 wallet would be buying more however not much buying from them on the peak Fidenza sales. So, I am convinced that these are not the whales but smart money. Smart money are wallets that are very active and prolific. They able to sense pattern and know NFT culture and its potential very well. So, let us see if these 5 smart money wallet are selling their Fidenza or not in August.

    It seems that our smart money are bunch of diamond hands. There are several selling here and there but mostly are minor. Now this may also means that our smart money wallet still think that there are still potential in Fidenza.

    Now, let's see what's gonna be the next big collection next. Please proceed with caution as next section might contain some alphas. We will what else these smart money has bought in July and August and from there we can also ape in.

    So other than Fidenza, the smart money also had some stake in many other collections; albeit mainly in AB Curated. However, as a retail, we may want to look into collection from AB Playground or AB Factory as they have relatively lower floor price compared to AB Curated and they also have chance to as sought after as any AB Curated collections. Look at what happens to Dino Pals and The Eternal Pumps collection, just to name a few.