HODL or Sell?

    This dashboard aims to provide insight into how many Lido stakers have staked below or above the current price of ETH and how many of them have sold.

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    Introduction

    Lido is a staking protocol that allows for liquid staking of multiple assets such as Ethereum, Terra and Solana. Normally, the coins that you are staking are locked and cannot be used for anything else. With Lido, users are able to stake their assets and get a token in return that can be used to redeem their staked assets. This is called liquid staking as this new token can be used freely. For Ethereum, this token is called stETH (staked ETH).

    In this dashboard, we'll analyze at what price level most users started to stake their ETH with Lido. We'll also look at what percentage of stakers have sold vs hodl their stETH tokens.

    Methodology

    1. Determine the percentage of users that have staked above or below the current price of ETH: This was done by first determining all staking transactions using the ethereum.core.fact_event_logs in combination with the contract address of stETH: '0xae7ab96520de3a18e5e111b5eaab095312d7fe84' and the genesis address: event_inputs:from = lower('0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000'). Then, we combine the table with the daily average price of ETH to and calculate how many users staked below the current price of ETH. As of June 14th the current price of ETH is around $1200
    2. Determine the percentage of stakers that sold their stETH: stETH can currently only be unstaked by swapping back to ETH. We first find all stETH to ETH swap transactions using the ethereum.core.fact_event_logs table and the Curve stETH/ETH pool address: contract_address = lower('0xdc24316b9ae028f1497c275eb9192a3ea0f67022'). This gives us a list of addresses that have ever swapped stETH back to ETH. We then use the list of stakers that started staking below or above the current price and see if their address is in the sellers list.

    Results

    We can see that about 98% of all ETH stakers on Lido have staked their ETH above the current price of around $1200. This is to be expected as the last time ETH was at around 1200 was almost 1,5 years ago in January 2021. Anyone who staked with Lido since is in the group of stakes that staked above the current price.

    How many users have sold their stETH back to ETH? We can see that in both group the majory of stakes have not sold any stETH. However, we can see that stakers that staked below the current price of $1200 have sold more than stakers that staked above the current price. around 23% vs 14%.

    Conclusion

    • At the current ETH price of around $1200, 98% of all Lido stakers have staked above the current price.
    • The percentage of stakers that staked below the current price that have sold stETH is around 23% while the percentage of stakers that staked above the current price and have sold is around 14%.