Observation for User Reactions to Solana (SOL) Price Ranges:

In analyzing SOL’s market activity during various price highs and lows, several key trends emerge, particularly in swap volume and user engagement. Here's an in-depth breakdown:

1. 121-133 Price Range (Lows):

   • Average Price: $129.91
   • Unique Swappers: 5.3 million
   • Total Swaps: 120 million
   • Total Volume (USD): $6.63 billion
   • Key Swap Pairs: SOL-USDC ($2.69B), SOL-USDT ($175M), SOL-$WIF ($148M)

   Observation:
   This price range experienced elevated swap activity, with users seizing the opportunity to accumulate SOL during perceived market lows. The large number of unique swappers and the significant total volume in USDC ($2.69B) suggest that this period was viewed as a buying opportunity for long-term holders. Stablecoin pairs like USDC and USDT were the most popular, indicating traders were leveraging stable assets to buy into SOL. The participation of smaller pairs like SOL-$WIF highlights interest in less traditional trades. Sentiment during this period leaned toward accumulation and long-term confidence in SOL's rebound potential.

2. 136 Price Level (Lows):

   • Average Price: $141.28
   • Unique Swappers: 12.3 million
   • Total Swaps: 322.7 million
   • Total Volume (USD): $21.6 billion
   • Key Swap Pairs: SOL-USDC ($5.55B), SOL-USDT ($510M), SOL-$WIF ($404M)

   Observation:
   This price level saw the highest swap volume across all price ranges analyzed, with a staggering $21.6B in total volume. The significant jump in both unique swappers and total swaps suggests that many users regarded this as a strategic entry point, anticipating further upward movement in SOL's price. SOL-USDC once again dominated the activity, reflecting a trend where traders favored stablecoin pairings to secure their SOL positions. Sentiment analysis indicates strong confidence in market recovery from this level, as the volume was primarily driven by larger, more frequent trades.

3. 151-161 Price Range (Highs):

   • Average Price: $157.69
   • Unique Swappers: 6.6 million
   • Total Swaps: 165.1 million
   • Total Volume (USD): $13.16 billion
   • Key Swap Pairs: SOL-USDC ($2.81B), SOL-USDT ($338M), SOL-$WIF ($301M)

   Observation:
   Trading activity remained robust at this price range, but sentiment shifted from accumulation to profit-taking and rebalancing. The decrease in unique swappers compared to the previous low indicates that some users took this opportunity to exit their positions after realizing gains. Still, the total volume of $13.16B reflects continued optimism, with a large portion of the activity again revolving around USDC. Traders may have been securing profits into stablecoins or diversifying into other assets. The elevated volume in SOL-$WIF suggests an increasing interest in alternative tokens or less liquid trades.

4. 176-183 Price Range (Highs):

   • Average Price: $179.92
   • Unique Swappers: 4.8 million
   • Total Swaps: 90.9 million
   • Total Volume (USD): $10.59 billion
   • Key Swap Pairs: SOL-USDC ($1.42B), SOL-NEIRO ($418M), SOL-USDT ($232M)

   Observation:
   As SOL reached these high levels, swap activity began to taper off. Fewer unique swappers indicate that the price was viewed as potentially overvalued or too risky for new entrants. However, the total swap volume was still substantial, suggesting continued trading among more experienced or strategic investors. SOL-NEIRO becoming a significant swap pair points to an emerging interest in newer or more speculative tokens. The lower volume in stablecoins during this phase indicates that fewer traders were moving into safe assets, likely holding out for higher prices or consolidating positions.

General Sentiment Across Price Ranges:

• Low Prices (121-141): Lows in SOL’s price attracted a large number of new and returning traders, with sentiment strongly leaning toward accumulation. Stablecoins like USDC and USDT were the most utilized, reflecting a desire to lock in low prices with minimal volatility risk.

• High Prices (151-183): As prices climbed, trading behavior shifted towards profit-taking and more diverse token pairings. While trading volume remained high, sentiment suggested more caution, with fewer swappers engaging at these elevated levels. Nonetheless, the introduction of alternative swap pairs like NEIRO suggests that traders were exploring broader opportunities in the market.

This analysis highlights how traders’ behavior evolves in response to SOL’s price fluctuations, showing an appetite for both risk and strategic rebalancing at different market phases.

Observations for Swaps to SOL at Different Price Ranges

The following observations highlight key insights into swap activity to SOL at various price levels, comparing them with the trends observed in swaps from SOL.

1. 121-133 Price Range (Lows):

• Average Price: $129.79
• Unique Swappers: 3.04 million
• Total Swaps: 53.8 million
• Total Volume (USD): $4.75 billion
• Key Swap Pairs:
  • USDC-SOL: $2.83B
  • USDT-SOL: $179M
  • $WIF-SOL: $140M

Observation:

In this price range, swap activity to SOL was driven by accumulation at perceived market lows. The USDC-SOL pair contributed the most to the total volume, as users preferred swapping from stablecoins like USDC to enter SOL. The volume distribution is very similar to swaps from SOL, with USDC being the dominant trading pair, indicating that traders sought to reallocate their stable assets into SOL at this range.

When compared to swaps from SOL, we observe fewer unique swappers (3.04M vs. 5.3M) and a significantly lower total swap count (53.8M vs. 120M). This suggests that fewer users were moving into SOL from other tokens, likely because of the perception of SOL's low value being a more long-term investment opportunity.

2. 136 Price Level (Lows):

• Average Price: $141.21
• Unique Swappers: 7.6 million
• Total Swaps: 186.9 million
• Total Volume (USD): $15.71 billion
• Key Swap Pairs:
  • USDC-SOL: $5.88B
  • USDT-SOL: $512M
  • $WIF-SOL: $389M

Observation:

This price level shows a dramatic increase in swap activity, with the total volume surging to $15.7B. The number of unique swappers also increased significantly, indicating that users were taking advantage of the price stability at this range to move into SOL. USDC-SOL remained the most significant pair, contributing almost $5.88B, reinforcing the idea that stablecoin-to-SOL swaps were dominant.

When comparing with swaps from SOL, there was nearly a 1:2 ratio in both unique swappers and swap volume, with 7.6 million swappers moving into SOL compared to 12.3 million moving out. This suggests that more users were exiting their SOL positions at this level than entering. Nonetheless, the large volume to SOL also hints at continued optimism in SOL’s future price movement.

3. 151-161 Price Range (Highs):

• Average Price: $157.66
• Unique Swappers: 4.26 million
• Total Swaps: 95.4 million
• Total Volume (USD): $6.98 billion
• Key Swap Pairs:
  • USDC-SOL: $2.95B
  • USDT-SOL: $342M
  • $WIF-SOL: $308M

Observation:

As SOL reached higher levels, swap activity slowed down slightly compared to the lower levels, but the total volume remained substantial at $6.98B. Traders at this range still engaged in swapping into SOL, likely expecting further price appreciation. The USDC-SOL pair continued to dominate, though other pairs like $WIF-SOL showed consistent interest.

When compared to swaps from SOL, the trend at this level remains similar: while swaps to SOL are high, more traders are opting to exit SOL positions (with 6.6 million unique swappers moving out, compared to 4.26 million moving into SOL). This behavior reflects profit-taking at these highs, with more users selling their SOL than buying into it at this price point.

4. 176-183 Price Range (Highs):

• Average Price: $179.93
• Unique Swappers: 3.6 million
• Total Swaps: 72.9 million
• Total Volume (USD): $4.36 billion
• Key Swap Pairs:
  • USDC-SOL: $1.46B
  • NEIRO-SOL: $417M
  • USDT-SOL: $233M

Observation:

At these price highs, swap activity to SOL further reduced in volume and unique swappers. With $4.36B in total volume, traders seemed cautious to buy into SOL at these higher levels. USDC-SOL remained the most popular pair, but interestingly, NEIRO-SOL swaps gained prominence with $417M in volume, showing diversification in the tokens users were swapping into SOL.

In comparison with swaps from SOL, this range exhibited the smallest difference, as the number of unique swappers moving in and out of SOL were similar (3.6 million to SOL, 4.8 million from SOL). This signals a consolidation phase, where traders were balancing their positions rather than making aggressive moves into or out of SOL.

Comparison Between Swaps to SOL and Swaps from SOL

• Lower Price Ranges (121-136):

  • The swaps from SOL generally had more unique swappers and higher swap activity compared to swaps to SOL. This suggests that while users were accumulating SOL at low prices, they were also more actively swapping out of SOL, possibly as part of profit-taking or diversification strategies.
  • At the 136 level low, the total volume for swaps to SOL reached $15.7B, slightly lower than the $21.6B for swaps from SOL at the same level, indicating more sellers than buyers at this range.

• Higher Price Ranges (151-183):

  • As the price moved higher, the balance between swaps to SOL and swaps from SOL became more even. At 151-161, for example, the volume for swaps to SOL was $6.98B, while swaps from SOL stood at $13.16B. This difference suggests that traders were more cautious about entering SOL positions at these higher prices, but they were still engaging in swaps to secure SOL.
  • The 176-183 range saw relatively equal swap activity in both directions, indicating a market with more consolidation and strategic adjustments than clear buy/sell trends.

General Sentiment Comparison:

• At Low Prices (121-141): More users were swapping out of SOL than swapping into it, indicating that traders viewed these levels as both accumulation zones and profit-taking opportunities.
• At High Prices (151-183): Swaps from SOL consistently exceeded swaps into SOL, signaling that more traders were selling into strength, but the gap between the two began to narrow, showing caution and a balanced market at these highs.

These observations reflect dynamic market behavior, where user sentiment adjusts according to SOL's price levels, with the balance between accumulating and exiting positions closely tied to perceived market opportunities.

Observation on Selling Behavior Among Smaller Account Holders

This analysis reveals a notable trend in the behavior of smaller SOL account holders in relation to Solana's price fluctuations.

1. Vulnerability of Smaller Holders:

   • Users with 1-100 SOL balances show a significant prevalence of large balance decreases. In the 121-133 level lows price range, out of 3,198,221 total users, 1,715,316 (approximately 53.6%) experienced an 80% or more decrease in their SOL balances. This high percentage suggests that many smaller holders are likely selling off their holdings in response to market downturns.

2. Comparative Stability of Larger Holders:

   • In contrast, while the 500+ SOL group in the same price range also experienced significant declines, with 41.7% of users seeing an 80%+ decrease, this percentage is lower than that of the smaller account holders. This indicates that larger holders may be more resilient to selling pressures during price declines, potentially due to their greater ability to withstand short-term volatility.

3. Potential Selling Behavior:

   • The high rates of substantial decreases in SOL balances among smaller holders suggest a tendency to liquidate positions when faced with unfavorable price movements. This behavior could be driven by a desire to limit losses, a lack of confidence in price recovery, or the need to access liquidity for other purposes.

Conclusion

The data strongly indicates that smaller SOL account holders are more likely to engage in selling behavior during periods of price volatility, leading to significant decreases in their balances. This trend emphasizes the need for these investors to implement effective risk management strategies to mitigate losses during turbulent market conditions.

Observations on Staking and Delegation Activity by Price Range

The analysis of staking and withdrawal activities in relation to different price ranges for the Solana token reveals several notable trends:

1. Staked and Withdrawn Amounts by Price Range

PRICE RANGE	Total Staked Amount	Total Withdrawn Amount
121-133 level lows	12,384,731.69	7,401,202.82
136 level lows	29,468,693.73	17,568,641.84
155-161 highs	19,532,288.10	13,362,579.89
176-183 highs	10,462,343.73	4,822,907.44

2. Delegation and Withdrawal Counts by Price Range

PRICE RANGE	Delegation Count	Withdraw Count	Active Stakers
121-133 level lows	74,128	780,381	30,818
136 level lows	156,048	446,276	55,032
155-161 highs	71,326	418,566	36,922
176-183 highs	34,940	61,271	24,072

Key Insights

1. High Staking Activity at Lower Price Levels:

   • The 136 level lows price range saw the highest total staked amount at 29,468,693.73, indicating significant user confidence in this price level as a support range. This confidence is further supported by the 156,048 delegation count, suggesting that many users were actively staking their tokens to benefit from potential rewards.

2. Significant Withdrawals in Higher Price Levels:

   • A noteworthy withdrawal amount of 17,568,641.84 was observed at the 136 level lows, highlighting that users might be taking profits as the price approached these levels. Additionally, the 176-183 highs range experienced the lowest total staked amount (10,462,343.73) with a withdraw count of 61,271, indicating potential profit-taking behavior as the price reached the upper limits.

3. User Activity Correlation:

   • The active stakers at the 136 level lows peaked at 55,032, which might suggest a robust interest in staking as prices stabilize in this range. Conversely, the lower active staker count in the 176-183 highs range (24,072) indicates that fewer users were inclined to stake their assets when prices were at higher levels.

4. Observations on Key Dates:

   • On August 19, a significant spike in staked volume occurred, coinciding with a price bounce back off the 135-140 price level. This rebound likely encouraged users to stake more tokens, reflecting confidence in a price recovery.
   • Conversely, on July 29, a high withdrawal amount was recorded as the price approached the 180 level high. This suggests that users may have withdrawn their stakes in anticipation of a price correction or as a reaction to reaching perceived price resistance levels.

Conclusion

The data indicates that staking and withdrawal activities are closely tied to price movements, with significant activity occurring at both support and resistance levels. Users tend to increase their staking efforts when prices are low and show a tendency to withdraw as prices rise. The observed trends highlight the dynamic relationship between market sentiment, price levels, and user behavior, providing valuable insights for future strategies in the Solana ecosystem.