Try Quests to earn cryptoSolana - SOL Swaps on Jupiter
Since January 1st, how much SOL has been swapped for other tokens using Jupiter per day? Over the same time period, how much SOL has added from swaps using Jupiter per day? Create a visualization showing the flow of SOL from swaps on Jupiter since January 1st per day and provide insights around any spikes you see.
Date: 2022-02-17
In this analysis we will have a look at the $SOL swaps on Jupiter Aggregator from January 1st till February 17th, in both directions. I'll generate a chart of this data and we will check this chart for anomalies and try to find out what caused them.
All data is from between January 1st and February 17th 2022.
The bar chart below shows the daily $SOL volume swapped away for other tokens and also the volume of $SOL of all tokens swapped to $SOL. When we look at the chart, we can clearly see three spikes and a kind of a plateau in our date range from January 1st to February 17th 2022.
Findings:
- First spike on January 6th
- Plateau from January 21st till 27th
- Second spike on January 24th
- Third spike on February 2nd
In the next steps I'll try to find out where these findings are coming from, by checking different things like comparing swaps to the $SOL price chart, number of transactions per day, the individual swaps on the spike days, the price chart etc. to find reasons for these 'anomalies' there.
Looking at the number of transactions on the spike-days (from Daily swapped $SOL on Jupiter), we can clearly see that two of three spikes (January 6th/7th and January 21st) led to a massive decrease on transactions on these days.
- First spike on January 6th --> Massive drop (18,7 Million) in transactions on Solana, impact on Jupiter, transactions decreased about 8k
- Plateau from January 21st till 27th --> Massive drop (24 Million) in transactions on Solana, increase of transactions on Jupiter
- Second spike on January 24th --> Impact on Solana transactions, they went up 7 Million on the 25th, still high transaction numbers on Jupiter, but transaction number decreased about 50k an the 25th
- Third spike on February 2nd --> No impact on Solana transactions, 5 Million more the day after, increase in transactions followed bei a decrease over the next days, 30k up on the 7th.
Source: https://status.solana.com/
When we compare the the $SOL price chart with the swaps bar chart we can see some commonalities, which I describe here:
- First spike on January 6th --> Massive price drop
- Plateau from January 21st till 27th --> Begins with a huge price drop, followed by a low price over several days
- Second spike on January 24th --> Small price drop
- Third spike on February 2nd --> Price increase
First I checked the Status page of Solana and found some interesting issues ...
... and second, I googled and searched twitter and found interesting news for February 2nd regarding Wormhole Bridge and Solana.
In the following charts, we want to have a look at the tokens swapped on the spike days.
Wormhole team published some posts on twitter to inform users about the situation and keep them up to date. Later they described the hack and what happened in an article on medium.
Conclusion
So let's try to put this all together. The fact is, Solana Blockchain has had a very turbulent and flawed start to the year. We can only hope that the rest of the year will be calmer and with fewer or no incidents.
Let's have a look at our spikes:
- On January 6th, there were significant performance problems with the Solana Blockchain as we can see on the Status Page. This led to a strong increase of the swap volume, because people tend to panic when such sings happen. People started to swap their $SOL to these tokens, mainly top Wrapped SOL, USDC and SOL Invictus. They also swapped their tokens (Marinade staked SOL, Wrapped SOL, USDC) to $SOL. On this day $SOL price dropped massively which means that people not only swapped their $SOL but rather sold a lot of $SOL. Swapping $SOL to Wrapped SOL, USDC and SOL Invictus makes sense in this scenario, to move away from Solana or just secure value.
- In the phase from January 21st till 27th we had again massive problems with the Solana Blockchain, as we could see on the Status page and read in the news. This caused a massive price drop of $SOL. The number of transactions dropped in the first and the swaps on Jupiter increased again over several days.
- On the 24th, the swap volume spiked and also the number of transactions went up! People swapped their $SOL to Wrapped SOL, USDC and USDT and also swapped their Wrapped SOL, USDC and USDT to $SOL wich sounds a bit weird, but maybe these people are not the same. The first group tried to move their $SOL away from Solana or to a stablecoin, the second group tried to swap their tokens to $SOL probably to sell it, which could have caused the price drop.
- February 2nd, This time the price increased and swap volume on Jupiter spiked. This time it had no impact on Solana transactions, but the day after we had 5 Million more, the increase in transactions followed bei a decrease over the next days, 30k up on the 7th. This event seems different than the two others, which makes totally sense, because this time we don't have an issue with the Solana Blockchain but with the main bridge from & to Solana. The Wormhole bridge got hacked!
What we can say at the end is, that every 'negative' event on a blockchain, no matter which kind of problems happens, has massive influence on the people, because most of the time people start to panic and try to secure their assets, which is of course totally understandable! The top priority for all blockchains and applications must therefore be security, as this is the only way to safeguard assets and user trust in the long term.
Thanks for reading!
This analysis was created on 2022–02–18 for a bounty at Flipside Crypto by piper to answer the following questions:
Solana - SOL Swaps on Jupiter: Since January 1st, how much SOL has been swapped for other tokens using Jupiter per day? Over the same time period, how much SOL has added from swaps using Jupiter per day? Create a visualization showing the flow of SOL from swaps on Jupiter since January 1st per day and provide insights around any spikes you see.
All data used are from Flipside Crypto.
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